Help Wanted and Job vacancies: An analysis of the predictive capabilities of the CSA-Isfol time series for employment and unemployment fluctuations

Abstract

This paper aims at providing an analysis of the dynamic properties of the CSA-Isfol quarterly series on job vacancies, in order to assess the possibility of its use as a leading indicator for the employment and unemployment fluctuations. In particular, we study the cross-correlative structure emerging between definite sections of vacancies and the corresponding sections in the standard employment and unemployment series. The analysis employs both standard descriptive tools, and the modern econometric concepts developed for the multivariate analysis of non stationary time series.